Regime change in Tehran? Don't bet on it

By Dilip Hiro

The dramatic images of protestors in Iran fearlessly facing - and sometimes countering - the brutal attacks of the regime's security forces rightly gain the admiration and sympathy of viewers in the West. They also leave many Westerners assuming that this is a preamble to regime change in Tehran, a repeat of history but with a twist. After all, Iran has the distinction of being the only Middle Eastern state that underwent a revolutionary change - 31 years ago - which originated as a mild street protest.

Viewed objectively, though, this assumption is over-optimistic. It overlooks cardinal differences between the present moment and the 1978-1979 events that led to the overthrow of the shah of Iran and the founding of an Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. History shows that a revolutionary movement triumphs only when two vital factors merge: it is supported by a coalition of different social classes and it succeeds in crippling the country's governing machinery and fracturing the state's repressive apparatus.