Wednesday, July 21, 2010

What do deficit slashers wear under their hair shirts?

It's worthwhile trying to uncover the assumptions made by the economists who demand rapid 'fiscal consolidation'

All intellectual systems rely on assumptions that do not need to be spelled out because all members of that particular intellectual community accept them. These "deep" axioms are implicit in economics as well but, if left unscrutinised, they can steer policymakers into a blind alley. That is what is happening in today's effort, in country after country, to slash spending and bring down budget deficits.

The chief task that John Maynard Keynes set himself in writing his General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money was to uncover the deep axioms underlying the economic orthodoxy of his day, which assumed away the possibility of persistent mass unemployment. The question he asked of his opponents was: "What must they believe in order to claim that persistent mass unemployment is impossible, so that government 'stimulus' to raise the employment level could do no good?" In answering this question, Keynes reconstructed the orthodox theory – and then proceeded to demolish it.

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